Scoring is ablaze these NHL playoffs. It reached its peak May 3 using a ridiculous 6.09 goals per match and it’s now at 5.85 goals heading into Game 1 of the Stanley Cup final.
If you compare it with current postseasons, that amount is absurd. Additionally, it is a narrative that has been largely overlooked by both the mainstream media and the gambling community.
From the 10 seasons ahead, the greatest goals per game average in a playoffs was 5.98 (2010) and even that was an anomaly considering it was the first period under new rule changes to crack down with a force on obstruction. The NHL called it tighter to open up play along with the OVER crushed that year in 45-30-14.
I gotta hand it to oddsmakers because although scoring is way up this season, they have managed to book totals admirably. The O/U stands 32-36-11 heading to Game 1 between the Washington Capitals and Vegas Golden Knights. That is really a gain of $200.25 should you place $100 on every UNDER. So how should we be betting totals in the NHL closing?
I believe we will see some value . The largest reason is goaltending and that’s always the first thing you need to check at when you’re betting totals from the NHL. If a team’s goalie is not playing well, pucks are going to find the back of the net — it’s just an issue of how many.
When a team’s goaltender is hot, though, he can always slip an UNDER victory for you by yourself.
Goaltenders:
Marc-Andre Fleury has propelled the Golden Knights to the closing and that is obvious with him sitting since the -120 favored to win the Conn Smythe. Should you want more than that, Fleury owns a 1.68 goals-against moderate and a .947 save percentage.
That second number rankings best for one postseason of any goalie who is played eight matches. As in No. 1 all time based on quanthockey.com. He is putting on a playoff performance for the ages and you can run out of superlatives to describe it.
Braden Holtby is a bit of a story for Washington. He’s been up-and-down these playoffs with a few softies squeezing through. He has had six games this postseason in which his save percentage dropped below .900, which is somewhat scary.
The fantastic news for Caps and UNDER bettors, even however, is it seems he’s saved his best for last. Holtby enters the closing off back-to-back shutouts from a potent Tampa Bay squad using a combined 53 saves.
A major reason why is that Washington played much better team defense in front of him in those matches. The Capitals had 36 blocked shots compared with the Bolts’ 21 as well as to methey played their best defensively of their postseason at both ends of the ice.
Holtby is a much better goaltender when the Capitals are playing like that. He’s not always the kind of keeper who’s likely to steal goals off great scoring chances again and again like Fleury. But he’ll stop just about all of the shots he should when his team is playing well in front of him.
The prior fourth-round pick has quietly earned the third-best goals-against average in history (2.01) among goaltenders with at least 50 games.
Scoring at the Stanley Cup Final:
Scoring goes down in the NHL closing. The team that can play much better defense and possesses the hotter goaltender generally wins the Cup.
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