Having survived a huge qualification scare, the host state’s dream of winning their first World Cup stays very much alive. To sustain it and achieve their first final since 1992, England will need to beat their oldest rival and, in doing so, reverse a heavy defeat earlier in the championship.
Aussies have dispelled doubts and defied pundits
In keeping with 50-over cricket generally, the formbook has stood up well. Very few pundits doubted England, India and Australia could reach the semis, while New Zealand were a popular option.
One aspect which many people and to some degree the gambling got wrong, nevertheless, was underestimating the Aussies. Perhaps they’re still only third greatest however, the gap is evidently narrower than five weeks past.
The doubts were of course valid. Nobody knew how they would react to each of the controversy and upheaval regarding David Warner and Steve Smith’s return to international cricket. Nor whether Mitchell Starc would be the exact same drive as in 2015. After 932 runs out of the former pair, and 26 wickets from the latter, we may safely say they delivered beyond the most optimistic expectations.
Defeat to South Africa in Saturday’s dead rubber maybe take some of the glow off but I wouldn’t read anything to it. The Aussies have won 15 of their last 17 matches and, before the World Cup, eight to the bounce came from India and Pakistan.
England’s response to catastrophe was superb
In terms of England, their wobble not only livened up the tournament but perhaps brought an drunk sense of realism. Yes, they’ve been the best ODI side of recent years but as Sri Lanka proved, nothing can be taken for granted at this elite level.
England have been outstanding in both latest must-win matches, doing what they do best – compiling unattainable totals. In defeating India and fellow semi-finalists New Zealand, their pedigree has been re-affirmed.
Aussie bowlers could Offer the key advantage
But I must question their standing as clear favourites here. There was not anything flukey regarding Australia’s 64-run victory over them in the group. For all their batting power and depth, England couldn’t manage Starc and Jason Behrendorff – let alone hit them from the park.For my money, the general rule to follow along with elite level cricket would be that bowlers win matches. Only by controlling the scoring rate and take wickets throughout the middle overs, can totals be contained.
Bowling isn’t England’s strength however, to be fair, they have delivered. Jofra Archer and Mark Wood possess 33 wickets combined, while Chris Woakes has also been excellent and unlucky on occasion.
Nevertheless I rate the pace trio as a superior combination and Starc is frankly unplayable at times. Given that their batsmen have also performed, with the best order flourishing, patriotic concerns have to be put aside. 2.28 about such an in-form outfit, boasting a vast advantage in terms of managing pressure in previous Earth, has to be the bet.
300 looks a winning total in Edgbaston
Pre-tournament, Edgbaston was on my list of grounds accountable to yield extremely high totals. Having a company pitch, 400 will be possible but this surface was slow and low.
The first two totals were 241 and 237 – both of which demonstrated competitive if not quite enough. Since, England won 337 along with India with 315. Both scores appeared and proved comfortably above par.
If 300 or longer starts at odds-on within our 1st Innings Runs marketplace, I’ll be laying it, and also a ring around the 270 mark will probably be worth opposing at 1.30 or less.
So much as Leading Australian Batsman is concerned, it is hard to argue for anyone past the top purchase. Warner and Aaron Finch have amassed 1145 runs and are perfectly reasonably value to top-score again at 11/4 and 10/3 respectively.
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