Having survived a huge eligibility scare, the host nation’s dream of winning their first World Cup stays very much alive. To maintain it and reach their first final since 1992, England will need to conquer their earliest rival and, in doing this, reverse a hefty defeat earlier in the tournament.
Aussies have dispelled doubts and defied pundits
In keeping 50-over cricket generally, the formbook has stood up well. Not many pundits doubted England, India and Australia would reach the semis, while New Zealand were a popular option.
One aspect which many of us to some degree the betting got wrong, nevertheless, was underestimating the Aussies. Perhaps they are still only third best however, the difference is apparently narrower than five weeks ago.
The doubts were obviously legitimate. Nobody knew how they would respond to all the controversy and upheaval regarding David Warner and Steve Smith’s return to international cricket. Nor whether Mitchell Starc are the same drive as in 2015. After 932 runs from the former pair, also 26 wickets from the latter, we can safely say they delivered beyond the most optimistic expectations.
Defeat to South Africa in Saturday’s dead rubber maybe take some of the glow off but I wouldn’t read anything to it. The Aussies have won 15 of their last 17 matches and, before the World Cup, eight to the bounce came from India and Pakistan.
England’s answer to crisis was superb
As for England, their wobble not just livened up the tournament but possibly brought an overdue sense of realism. Yes, they have been the best ODI side of recent years however as Sri Lanka proved, nothing could be taken for granted at the elite level.
England are outstanding in both latest must-win matches, doing what they do best – compiling unattainable totals. In defeating India and fellow semi-finalists New Zealand, their pedigree has been re-affirmed.
Aussie bowlers could Offer the key advantage
Nevertheless, I must question their standing as clear favourites here. There was not anything flukey regarding Australia’s 64-run victory over them in the group. For all their batting power and depth, England couldn’t manage Starc and Jason Behrendorff – let alone hit them out of the park.For my money, the general rule to follow in elite level cricket is the fact that bowlers win matches. Only by controlling the scoring speed and take wickets throughout the middle overs, can totals be contained.
Bowling isn’t England’s strength but, to be honest, they have delivered. Jofra Archer and Mark Wood have 33 wickets combined, while Chris Woakes has also been excellent and unlucky on occasion.
Nevertheless I speed that the Aussie pace trio as a superior combination and Starc is frankly unplayable at times. Given that their batsmen have also performed, together with the top order flourishing, patriotic concerns have to be placed aside. 2.28 about this kind of in-form outfit, boasting a vast advantage in terms of managing pressure in previous World Cups, has to be the wager.
300 looks a winning total in Edgbaston
Pre-tournament, Edgbaston was on my list of grounds accountable to yield extremely high totals. Having a company pitch, 400 would be possible but this surface has been low and slow.
The very first two totals were 241 and 237 – both of which proved competitive if not quite enough. Since, England won with 337 along with India with 315. Both scores looked and demonstrated comfortably above par.
If 300 or longer begins at odds-on in our 1st Innings Runs market, I’ll be laying it, and also a band around the 270 mark will be well worth opposing at 1.30 or less.
So much as Top Australian Batsman is concerned, it is really hard to argue for anybody beyond the top order. Warner and Aaron Finch have amassed 1145 runs and are perfectly reasonably worth to top-score again at 11/4 and 10/3 respectively.
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