Having survived a massive qualification scare, the host state’s dream of winning their first World Cup remains very much alive. To sustain it and achieve their first final since 1992, England will have to conquer their oldest rival and, in doing this, reverse a heavy defeat earlier in the championship.
Aussies have dispelled doubts and defied pundits
In keeping 50-over cricket generally, the formbook has stood up well. Very few pundits doubted England, India and Australia would get to the semis, while New Zealand were a popular option.
1 aspect which most of us and to some degree the gambling got wrong, nevertheless, was underestimating the Aussies. Perhaps they are still only third best but the gap is apparently skinnier than five weeks ago.
The doubts were obviously legitimate. Nobody knew how they’d react to each of the controversy and upheaval regarding David Warner and Steve Smith’s return to international cricket. Nor whether Mitchell Starc are the same drive as in 2015. After 932 runs from the former group, and 26 wickets in the latter, we may safely say they delivered outside the most optimistic expectations.
Defeat to South Africa in Saturday’s dead rubber maybe take some of the shine off but I wouldn’t read anything into it. The Aussies have won 15 of the last 17 games and, prior to the World Cup, eight on the bounce came against India and Pakistan.
England’s answer to crisis was superb
In terms of England, their wobble not just livened up the tournament but possibly brought an drunk sense of realism. Yes, they’ve been the best ODI facet of recent years however as Sri Lanka demonstrated, nothing can be taken for granted at this elite level.
England have been outstanding in their two latest must-win matches, doing what they do best – compiling unattainable totals. In defeating India and fellow semi-finalists New Zealand, their pedigree was re-affirmed.
Aussie bowlers could Offer the key advantage
But I must question their standing as obvious favourites here. There was not anything flukey about Australia’s 64-run victory over them at the group. For all their batting power and thickness, England could not manage Starc and Jason Behrendorff – let alone hit them out of the park.For my cash, the rule to follow along with elite level cricket would be the fact that bowlers win matches. Only by controlling the scoring rate and take wickets during the middle overs, can totals be included.
Bowling isn’t England’s strength however, to be fair, they have delivered. Jofra Archer and Mark Wood possess 33 wickets united, while Chris Woakes has also been unlucky and excellent on occasion.
Nevertheless I rate the pace trio as a superior combination and Starc is honestly unplayable at times. Given that their batsmen have also performed, together with the best order thriving, patriotic concerns have to be placed aside. 2.28 about such an in-form outfit, boasting a vast advantage in terms of managing pressure in previous Earth, has to be the bet.
300 seems a winning total at Edgbaston
Pre-tournament, Edgbaston was on my list of grounds liable to yield very substantial totals. Having a company pitch, 400 would be possible but this surface was slow and low.
The first two totals were 241 and 237 – both of which proved aggressive if not quite enough. Ever since, England won with 337 and India with 315. Both scores appeared and proved comfortably above level.
If 300 or more begins at odds-on within our 1st Innings Runs marketplace, I’ll be laying it, and a band around the 270 mark will be worth opposing at 1.30 or less.
So far as Leading Australian Batsman is concerned, it is hard to argue for anybody beyond the top order. Warner and Aaron Finch have amassed 1145 runs and are perfectly reasonably value to top-score again in 11/4 and 10/3 respectively.
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