Having survived a huge eligibility scare, the host state’s dream of winning their first World Cup stays very much alive. To maintain it and reach their first final since 1992, England will need to beat their earliest rival and, in doing this, reverse a heavy defeat earlier in the championship.
Aussies have dispelled doubts and defied pundits
In keeping with 50-over cricket generally, the formbook has stood up well. Very few pundits doubted England, India and Australia could reach the semis, while New Zealand were a popular alternative.
1 aspect which most of us to some extent the betting got wrong, however, was underestimating the Aussies. Perhaps they are still only third best but the difference is apparently narrower than five weeks past.
The doubts were of course valid. Nobody knew how they would react to each of the controversy and upheaval regarding David Warner and Steve Smith’s return to international cricket. Nor whether Mitchell Starc are the exact same force as in 2015. After 932 runs from the former pair, also 26 wickets from the latter, we may safely say they delivered beyond the most optimistic expectations.
Defeat to South Africa in Saturday’s dead rubber perhaps take some of the glow off but I wouldn’t read anything into it. The Aussies have now won 15 of the last 17 matches and, before the World Cup, eight to the bounce came from India and Pakistan.
England’s answer to catastrophe was superb
As for England, their wobble not just livened up the championship but perhaps brought an drunk sense of realism. Yes, they’ve been the finest ODI facet of recent years however as Sri Lanka demonstrated, nothing can be taken for granted at this elite level.
England are outstanding in both newest must-win matches, doing what they do best – compiling unattainable totals. In comfortably defeating India and fellow semi-finalists New Zealand, their pedigree was re-affirmed.
Aussie bowlers could provide the key advantage
Nevertheless, I have to question their standing as clear favourites here. There was nothing flukey regarding Australia’s 64-run victory over them at the group. For all their batting power and thickness, England couldn’t manage Starc and Jason Behrendorff – let alone hit them out of the park.For my money, the general rule to follow along with elite level cricket would be that bowlers win matches. Only by controlling the scoring rate and take wickets throughout the middle overs, can totals be contained.
Bowling is not England’s strength but, to be fair, they’ve delivered. Jofra Archer and Mark Wood possess 33 wickets combined, while Chris Woakes has also been unlucky and excellent on event.
Nevertheless I rate that the Aussie pace trio as a superior combination and Starc is honestly unplayable at times. Given that their batsmen also have performed, together with the top order flourishing, patriotic concerns must be placed aside. 2.28 about this kind of in-form outfit, boasting a huge advantage in terms of handling pressure in previous Earth, must be the wager.
300 looks a winning total at Edgbaston
Pre-tournament, Edgbaston was on my list of reasons liable to yield extremely high totals. With a firm pitch, 400 will be possible but this surface was low and slow.
The very first two totals were 241 and 237 – both of which proved competitive if not quite enough. Since, England won 337 and India with 315. Both dents appeared and demonstrated comfortably above par.
If 300 or more starts at odds-on in our 1st Innings Runs market, I’ll be putting it, and also a ring around the 270 mark will probably be worth opposing at 1.30 or less.
So far as Leading Australian Batsman is concerned, it is really hard to argue for anybody past the top order. Warner and Aaron Finch have gathered 1145 runs and are perfectly reasonably value to top-score again in 11/4 and 10/3 respectively.
Read more here: http://www.jundaohc.com/?p=12205
