It is strangely funny how something could be taken for granted — overlooked only after it has gone away. Now the Breeders’ Cup is finished with, where in the world are the Kentucky Derby futures wagers?
I admit it. I am writing this feeling like a caffeine addict who cannot satisfy his morning-cuppa jones using the instant decaf that’s from the cabinet. I am shaking like I have been overcome by the DTs (look up that one, children ). I have this overwhelming desire to jump in my car and drive off for countless miles until I run into the closest ADW — the likes of which are hypocritically barred here in Nevada. (Don’t get me started on that.)
Something tells me I am not alone. Greater than six months before the 145th running of the Kentucky Derby, something is lost. And we aren’t talking about just any old Derby chances.
I had a market on Twitter with somebody who wanted to understand why the Westgate had not put up Derby futures yet. The Westgate? Come on. It’s a racebook, but really isn’t the horse shop. It was the Wynn that was the haven for horseplayers — the location that had the actual Derby futures. Could this Tweep have mixed his dubyas?
No, he insisted. He explained he had lost money on a Derby bet in the Westgate winter. In my addled state, I summoned the discipline to avoid pointing out that the Westgate appears to other bellwether markets to place its Derby lines after the first of the year. And I stopped short of submitting a snarky Tweet to remind you and that it isn’t winter yet. I saved that burst of pith with this particular column.
This brings us to the kernel of this withdrawal. In a normal year we would already have had Johnny Avello’s list of 300 or so Derby candidates to chew on. Like clockwork for 13 years, Avello cranked out those sheets complete with appealing chances and myriad chances to throw a historical Hail Mary — or five — at the Derby.
Sucker bet? Of course it is. But how much are we talking about investing? Request the few who threw some cash last February at Justify at odds of 300-1 to win the Derby, chances which were posted before his very first race. Can they seem like suckers?
Is it a smart ROI play? Hell, no. It’s far better than the Powerball, but not by much. Nonetheless, it’s fun. And Avello’s sheets were crucial grab in the Wynn Las Vegas each September.
But right around the time that summer turned to fall this season, Avello declared he was leaving the Wynn for a new gig at DraftKings, which has branched out from everyday fantasy sports to jump onto a certain May 14 Supreme Court decision to get into the sports-wagering small business.
Naturally, I asked Johnny if he would be moving his Derby futures to DraftKings. He said yes, however, there were details to be worked out.
Now we’ve attained the Ides of November, and there are still no Johnny Avello futures.
There was a glimmer of hope that they would be submitted this weekend at Mississippi, where DraftKings is launching its first bricks-and-mortar sportsbook at the new Scarlet Point Casino resort in d’Iberville, just north of Biloxi — along with a mere 678 miles south of Churchill Downs. But among those worker bees — let’s say a spokeswoman — in DraftKings’ corporate offices at Boston assured me Wednesday that they weren’t in the horse business. Yet.
Not long after that, I got a text from Johnny saying that his futures were still on hold.
It is not like I cannot find down a bet. William Hill has published a record of 73 horses for its modest Derby futures. Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Game Winner is the preferred — in 6-1.
Seriously? 6-1? In November? Fourteen months back when Bolt d’Oro was the favorite in the Avello futures at the Wynn, he’d only been bet down from 40-1 to 30-1.
Even if one concludes that the William Hill stocks are far much better than nothing, there is an alternative coming weekly. Churchill Downs will start the first nationwide Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool from Thanksgiving Day until the following Sunday, and it’ll be available through every ADW from the country. (Can I mention that ADWs aren’t allowed by a Nevada legislature that’s practicing bald-faced hypocrisy? I couldn’t remember.)
By now we’d have the Avello odds to become our North Star. They are a guide for William Hill, the Westgate as well as Johnny’s old friends at the Wynn to place static chances. They’d also be an influence for Mike Battaglia at Churchill Downs to set a legitimate morning line for its KDFW and its pari-mutuel betting.
Finally the red tape is going to be cleared, and Avello is going to be able to publish his odds somewhere. He’d inform me that Game Winner would be his favorite, but he didn’t divulge the odds.
Let us get real. No one worth her or his horseplaying salt need to take a dip on Game Winner right now. This time of year should be about taking a chance on a colt that Bob Baffert is not training or a Chad Brown colt that isn’t racing on a 200-1 shot which fired a bullet function that everyone else overlooked.
This is all about speaking to Johnny roughly Coliseum, the 2-year-old that’s racing for the first time . He’s a 2-1 morning-line preferred to win a maiden race that starts the Saturday card in Del Mar.. Coliseum has been sent to Baffert by Godolphin, which paid $300,000 for its colt. This is the same Godolphin that’s owned by the United Arab Emirates’ Sheikh Mohammed, who’s desperate to win a Kentucky Derby for the first time.
After I told this story, Avello explained that he would then include Coliseum in his early Derby futures. But this was before things got complicated this week.
There’s not any additional bookmaker here in Las Vegas or perhaps anywhere who’ll take requests like this. Johnny did, after all, take huge stakes before he left the Wynn on Instagrand and Roadster to win the Derby. In August he opened Roadster at 25-1 and Instagrand in 30-1. At William Hill today, Instagrand is 10-1 and Roadster 50-1. And both are for the moment from training.
No, it isn’t the exact same this fall. We do not have Johnny’s countless horses to choose from. At William Hill we have dozens — and we’re grateful. As soon as the KDFW opens Thursday, we will have 23 options plus”others.” (By”we,” I do not mean Nevada. I might have said that already.)
Here is hoping that the rigmarole that is holding up Avello’s futures contract is dispensed with earlier than later. Until then, I cannot be held accountable for the activities stemming from my withdrawal. God forbid, I might really bet a great deal of money rather in an overnight race from Moe, Australia.
Oh, where’s Mr. Avello when we actually need him?
Read more here: http://www.jundaohc.com/?p=12225
